Indonesian volcano calms but scientist warns threat imminent

BLITAR, Indonesia-Indonesian scientists warned Thursday that an eruption was imminent at a smouldering volcano on Java island despite an apparent slowdown in seismic activity.Mount Kelut in East Java was put on top alert on Tuesday, meaning an eruption was possible within 24 hours, forcing the evacuation of about 116,000 people from the fertile plains surrounding the peak.The head of the monitoring post at the active volcano, Kristanto, said that some 151 shallow tremors were recorded on Wednesday, but just 36 had shaken the peak until 0500 GMT Thursday."But even though a reduction in volcanic activity has been recorded in the last few hours, we're now in fact in a dangerous situation ahead of an eruption," he warned.He told AFP that a similar slowdown had occurred three days ahead of Mount Kelut's eruption in 1990, when 34 people were killed.The volcanologist also said that the temperature of water in the volcano's 15-metre (-yard) deep crater had reached nearly 38 degrees Celsius. It was 40 degrees before the 1990 eruption, he said."The increasing temperature means that magma inside the volcano is rising to the surface, meaning that the eruption is imminent," he said.Villagers living in the declared danger zone-a 10-kilometre (six-mile) radius around the peak-insisted they were not in immediate danger.Women washed clothes in the Putih river nine kilometres south of the crater, including 35-year-old Umi, who said she was convinced an eruption would not occur soon."Even though Mount Kelut is on its highest alert, we still consider it safe," she told AFP.Local elders, believed to have good knowledge about the temperamental volcano, have told villagers not to worry, she said."We are not afraid as we feel that this time the volcano's eruption will not be as big as the one in the 1990s."Some villagers said they will not evacuate until told to do so by Mbah Ronggo, the 64-year-old spiritual leader and warden of the volcano."According to my spiritual visions, it is indeed time for the volcano to erupt-but not today (Thursday)," Ronggo told reporters.Health Ministry crisis centre chief Rustam Pakaya said that around 12,500 people lived within eight kilometres of the volcano's peak and another 80,000 lived up to 15 kilometres away.A few thousand more living further away were also leaving their homes at night for shelters, fearful of being caught in an eruption, but the majority of evacuees were heading home during the day, he said.Police chief of Kediri city, Basuki, told Elshinta radio that police may start to force people to leave their homes."We will give them a guarantee that police will patrol to guard their houses," he said. Residents in at least four villages said the springs supplying their water had largely dried up since activity at the peak had surged. Eruptions at the volcano, including the one in 1990, have tended to consist of pyroclastic flows or "heat clouds" of hot air and volcanic debris that rush down the slopes and burn everything in their paths. More than 15,000 lives have been claimed since record-keeping began of Mount Kelut's eruptions, including an estimated 10,000 in a catastrophic 1586 eruption.A 1919 eruption spewed heat clouds that killed 5,160 people.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071018/wl_afp/indonesiavolcano_071018171625;_ylt=AoypJl1ayVYx0KZuKVapJ7WnZiEB

As in the days of Noah...